Navigating opportunity and compliance under China’s 15th Five-Year Plan

21 May 2026

On 12 March 2026, China’s National People’s Congress formally adopted the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (2026-2030) (“Plan”). The Plan reinforces a policy direction of selective opening-up and deeper global integration, alongside strengthened regulatory oversight, technological self-reliance, and economic security priorities.

For foreign businesses in China, the coming five years (2026-2030) will present targeted opportunities in high-growth advanced and emerging sectors. This period will be defined by new market evolution, where the continued rise of domestic firms will create heightened competition as well as fresh avenues for partnership and innovation. Businesses will engage with a maturing regulatory environment, building sustainable growth upon a clearer and more structured compliance framework. The overall outlook is one of significant potential for businesses prepared to adapt and grow alongside China’s evolving economy.

This articles highlights some of the intended initiatives that foreign businesses may wish to monitor over the 2026-2030 period.

Where access may widen

The Plan signals a continued shift from manufacturing-led opening-up to services- and innovation-led selective opening, supported by more developed regulatory frameworks for data, security, and operational compliance. 

Market access in selected sectors 

China intends to expand market access in sectors historically restricted to State-owned or local operators, including telecommunications, internet, healthcare, and education. Also contemplated in the Plan is the expansion of pilot programmes in areas such as biotechnology and wholly foreign-invested hospitals to allow for foreign investment.

The negative list for foreign investment market access is expected to continue shrinking, building on the 2025 reduction from 117 to 106 items. Together with the sectoral pilots above, this signals an intent to attract foreign capital and expertise into targeted areas.

The Plan also showcases continued efforts to facilitate cross-border data flows, improve digital trade infrastructure, and advance the internationalisation of the renminbi through wider use in trade, investment, and payment systems. 

Foreign investment framework 

The Plan reaffirms efforts to enhance China’s foreign investment framework, with a focus on improving market access conditions and attracting foreign capital into priority sectors, including:

  • National treatment for foreign-invested enterprises, ensuring equal treatment with domestic enterprises, alongside continued alignment of regulations with the Foreign Investment Law;
  • Targeted promotion of foreign investment, particularly in the advanced manufacturing, high-tech industries, modern services, and green sectors;
  • Encouragement of foreign participation in industrial value chains, including collaboration across upstream and downstream segments;
  • Support for regional headquarters and R&D centres, as well as facilitation of reinvestment by foreign enterprises within China; and
  • Expanded channels for foreign capital, including cross-border M&A and capital markets investment, alongside continued development of foreign investment security review.

Pilot zones and open economic platforms

The Plan points to continued development of opening-up platforms across regions, with better coordination between coastal and inland areas. Hainan Free Trade Port remains the flagship, with full-island customs closure and progressively more liberalised regimes for trade, investment, and cross-border flows. Free trade zones and pilot programmes are to be upgraded with a stronger innovation focus, and overlapping or geographically proximate platforms may be consolidated. 

Alignment with international rules

The Plan signals greater alignment of China’s regulatory framework with international standards in intellectual property protection, environmental information disclosure, labour protection, government procurement, and trade facilitation and digitalisation. 

Domestic demand and consumption

Domestic demand remains a strategic anchor, with measures expected to focus on stabilising employment, increasing incomes, and strengthening social security to support sustained consumption.

Service consumption is identified as a key growth area encompassing healthcare, elderly care, education, tourism, cultural services, and digital services, alongside encouragement of new consumption models such as immersive experiences, smart services, and low-altitude economy applications. The Plan also flags improvements to the consumer environment, including consumer protection, financial services access, and policies promoting inbound consumption and tourism.

Private sector parity

The Private Economy Promotion Law, effective from May 2025, provides the legal foundation for equal access to production factors, fair competition, and protection of lawful rights and interests of private enterprises. Competitive infrastructure-related sectors may be opened more broadly to private enterprises, and capable private firms may be encouraged to lead major national R&D projects. Private enterprises may, in turn, face more standardised reporting and disclosure requirements as monitoring frameworks expand. Regulations and policies supporting its implementation are expected to be further developed and enforced.

Where rules and competition may tighten

Alongside selective opening-up, the Plan reinforces a parallel agenda of technological self-reliance, structured regulatory oversight, and a green transition. For foreign businesses, this points to heightened competition as Chinese firms move up the value chain, and an increasingly structured compliance environment. 

Optimising and upgrading traditional industries

Traditional industries, including steel, petrochemicals, shipbuilding, and marine engineering equipment, are expected to undergo structural adjustment through digitalisation, green technologies, and stricter standards on safety, environmental protection, and product quality. The focus is on moving up the value chain, achieving breakthroughs in critical components and materials, strengthening industrial chain resilience, and phasing out outdated capacity.

Scaling strategic emerging industries 

Strategic emerging industries are positioned as a central driver of high-quality growth, with policy support intended to promote innovation, scale-up, and integrated R&D and product development in this regard. Flexible regulatory measures, including “sandbox” and “trigger-based” regulation approaches, will also be explored to support experimentation while maintaining oversight.

Priority industries for development include:

  • Integrated circuits and advanced semiconductors;
  • Artificial intelligence (“AI”) and embodied AI applications;
  • Bio-manufacturing and high-end medical equipment;
  • New-type batteries and green hydrogen;
  • Commercial and domestically produced large aircraft (e.g. COMAC C919 and C929);
  • Low-altitude equipment and aerospace technologies; and
  • Brain-computer interfaces and frontier technologies.

Technological self-reliance 

The Plan frames technological self-reliance as a national priority tied to economic security, industrial upgrading, and innovation-driven growth, calling for reduced dependence on foreign technology in strategic areas, particularly advanced manufacturing, semiconductors, industrial software, AI, biomanufacturing, and frontier technologies. “Key core technology breakthroughs in important fields” are identified as essential, with coordinated funding and integration of research with industrial development.

Supporting infrastructure is part of this agenda: expanded national computing facilities and data resources, AI model development and high-quality training datasets, capabilities in multimodal AI and intelligent agents, protection of critical information infrastructure, cybersecurity, technical resilience through disaster recovery and backup systems, and accessible computing services for enterprises (including SMEs).

Enterprises, including private firms, are expected to play a stronger role in national R&D, with potential support through tax incentives, financial instruments, venture capital, and stronger intellectual property protection. Technology-focused capital markets and long-term funding mechanisms may also be developed further.

Data and AI governance

China plans to establish a foundational system for managing data as a strategic resource, covering ownership, sharing, use, revenue allocation, and security. Key initiatives include a unified national data property rights registration system and an integrated, secure, national data market supported by standardised rules, third-party service providers, and data pricing and revenue sharing mechanisms. Legal frameworks for data collection, storage, circulation, and use management will be strengthened, alongside data classification and grading for security purposes.

Regulatory oversight of emerging technologies, particularly AI, will also be strengthened, through algorithm governance, lifecycle risk management, and monitoring of AI-related safety and ethical standards. Enterprises in the platform economy can expect greater scrutiny of data handling, algorithm management, and operational transparency, with intensified enforcement against data misuse, deepfakes, and privacy breaches.

Green and low-carbon transition

The Plan sets out a roadmap for China’s green and low-carbon transition, with carbon peaking as a central goal. Adjustments across industrial, energy, and transportation structures are expected to accelerate to meet the carbon peaking target on schedule, alongside coordinated action on emissions reduction, energy efficiency, and ecological protection.

For foreign businesses, this points to potential compliance requirements in high-emission industries, opportunities in green and low-carbon technologies, and the need to align with China's evolving environmental standards. Climate adaptation and risk management feature alongside supporting policies for sustainable, resilient growth.

Looking ahead

As the Plan’s vision will be fleshed out in detailed regulations, sectoral policies, and targeted pilot programs over the next five years, we recommend that foreign businesses stay closely attuned to sector-specific developments. The most significant opportunities - and complex challenges - will arise at the intersection of broader market access and China’s focused goals for technological self-reliance, data security, green priorities, and sustainability. Foreign businesses that can navigate this structured yet dynamic environment with agility will thrive in the next chapter of China’s evolution.